Existing population change forecasts from the US Census Bureau (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012) or spatial urban growth scenarios based on research from NC State University and the USGS Southeast Climate Science Center (SECSC) will be applied to the study area to drive various water-use scenarios that will be simulated with the groundwater and surface-water models.
Historic and recent water-use estimates and land-use maps will be used with the future land-use change models developed as part of this study to estimate future water-use. These water-use estimates will be incorporated into simulated future groundwater, surface-water and ecological model scenarios. Although this technique will be considered, the future water-use predictions from State agencies and local municipalities will be heavily relied upon to develop the final future water-use scenarios that will be modeled.
Through close cooperation with the SECSC, the CC FAS team will consider employing either the most current and applicable downscaled global climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (CMIP5) to project regional precipitation and temperature change or plausible forecasted regional precipitation and temperature scenarios from published literature, which will be necessary input for the groundwater, surface-water and ecological response models discussed herein. Two or three different plausible precipitation and temperature scenarios will be developed for use in the modeling tasks.